News 🚀 Crypto Bitcoin Missed A $54 Billion Opportunity By Neglecting Runes

[Capybara]

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There is no shortage of opinions when it comes to the stunning launch of President Donald Trump’s Solana memecoin. The news and staggering performance of $TRUMP in the days leading up to his Inauguration have all but confirmed the dawn of a new era for our industry, emphatically declaring that the rules are now very different. In the midst of all the drama, confusion and hot takes, I’m left wondering: did Bitcoiners fumble the bag?

Last year, at block height 840,000, a significant change went into effect on the Bitcoin network –– and I’m not talking about the halving. The Runes metaprotocol launched, making it possible to etch and trade fungible tokens on Bitcoin. This event was met with a record influx of volume, and briefly sent the mempool to thousands of sats/vb. While the mania was short lived, the existence of Runes and initial signal of product-market fit demonstrated there was appetite for Bitcoin to attract significant capital for the tokens and memecoins use case, currently being dominated by Solana, Base and Ethereum. Bitcoin miners could have also benefited (beyond the brief spike) from the increased transaction fees, and the urgency of lowering network congestion may have hastened even more rapid progress towards realizing new solutions for faster, cheaper Bitcoin transactions. In short, more people would be using and learning about Bitcoin.

Instead, our community was bitterly divided on the topic. Some expressed concerns, labeling supporters of Runes and tokens on Bitcoin as “shitcoiners.” These critiques often stem from a deeply held desire to protect Bitcoin’s integrity – a valid and important consideration. However, what if, instead of dismissing these emerging trends outright, we explored ways to channel this enthusiasm into a productive, Bitcoin-aligned framework? Honest exploration of pragmatic solutions to meet the demand responsibly could uncover a path forward to satiate the market’s demand for tokens on Bitcoin. Perhaps we could have spent the past several months rallying around the development of a sleeker UX, improved functionality and creative approaches to harm mitigation, enforced on-chain. Instead, we’ve left these would-be users to market competitors.

Had we properly anticipated and prepared for the reality that Bitcoin could attract the economic activity taking place on other chains, then we would have been better positioned to encourage yesterday’s $8.5B of $TRUMP transaction volume and nearly 1M new users to do business on Bitcoin rather than on Solana. Many will say “memecoins are not a business and that type of degeneracy has no place on bitcoin” –– but that assertion does not change the fact that by ignoring this economic phenomena, we are ceding ground and effectively forfeiting the opportunity to onboard users to Bitcoin by the millions.

Our PTSD of rug pulls, ICOs and pump and dumps may be limiting our imagination. The truth is, no one knows where all of this bizarre economic activity is headed or how (if?) it will end. Many Bitcoiners believed DOGE would have been long dead by now, yet it currently boasts a $54B market cap and is entering its 10th year in existence. It’s possible that what we call “memecoins” are becoming a fixture in the new, emergent economy, whether you like them or not.

The memecoin ecosystem undeniably has its pitfalls– scams, rug pulls and degenerate gambling to name a few. But I believe a reasonable case could be made to suggest a deeper explanation for the market’s appetite to place unfettered bets on what participants find funny, provocative, witty, timely, useful or popular. At the end of the day, much of our modern economy has been reduced to various forms of gambling with varying degrees of sophistication and abstraction. While the ultimate vision of hyperbitcoinization is meant to correct this, it seems realistic to expect a transition period and even some remnants of the fiat system in the most optimistic scenario. The fact remains that as of today, you can buy $FARTCOIN or you can buy $TESLA call options. Either way you are placing a bet based on a number of (albeit very different) factors which have convinced you that your position is or will be shared by others who will follow suit, causing your bet/investment to increase in value.

I don’t claim to know the roadmap for $TRUMP, and I acknowledge that there is a lot that could go wrong. But I find it interesting that the 80% “pre-mined” supply is locked for up to three years, which seems to signal a clear intention NOT to “pump and dump”. That seems to suggest a minimum commitment of 3 years to build value in some way, shape or form.

Perhaps a new reality is emerging where a high profile individual’s personal memecoin is a reflection of their respective performance or popularity in the eyes of the masses, similar to the mechanics of a stock fluctuating based on relevant news or the release of a company’s quarterly earnings. If this thesis plays out, the highest quality memecoins will be stewarded by people and teams who have aligned incentives with their holders,similar to how publicly-traded companies are interested in doing what’s right by their shareholders.

Bitcoin has always thrived when its community embraces challenges with creativity and conviction. Instead of dismissing memecoins as a passing fad, I’m interested in how Bitcoin can become the foundation for a better token ecosystem – one rooted in security, transparency and user empowerment under a Bitcoin standard. Rather than miss the forest for the trees or throw the baby out with the bath water, it seems prudent to consider a more enterprising approach to address the clear market demand for memecoins. Are there productive ways for Bitcoin to filter out the noise while attracting the highest quality memes to the Runes ecosystem, or is this simply high time preference thinking?

It’s not just the combined $100B market cap of DOGE and TRUMP that Bitcoin is missing out on. We are also missing out on the mindshare of the millions who engage with these projects, the talent of developers who build on these chains and the narrative that gets away from us when competing chains capture significant market share that Bitcoin seems unable or unwilling to even acknowledge. By embracing innovation and thoughtfully addressing these emerging trends, Bitcoin can maintain its position not just as the hardest money, but as the bedrock for a dynamic economy, without compromising its core principles.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
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